Q1 – January to March 2024
What’s been happening in markets?
The first three months of 2024 saw stock markets continue their upward trend as stronger economic growth supported the outlook for company profits and buoyed investor sentiment. The improvement in business conditions was especially visible in the UK where manufacturing and services industries appeared to be on the up.
Over in Asia, Japanese stocks outperformed their developed market peers in Japanese yen terms. Corporate governance reforms further boosted confidence in capital efficiency (i.e. how efficiently a company spends its money to operate and grow) and shareholder value creation (i.e. the value based on a company’s ability to sustain and grow profits over time).
The Bank of Japan also raised its policy rate for the first time in 17 years and loosened its control of yields (i.e. the return an investor can expect) on government debt as wages and inflation were finally taking off after years of falling prices. The fear that higher interest rates would result in a stronger currency, and therefore derail the market’s momentum, proved short-lived.
However, market sentiment turned negative for global government bond markets, after it became apparent that US interest rates might not fall as quickly, or as frequently, as some people were expecting. The latest US inflation data threw a spanner in the works by showing that price pressures remain stubbornly high.
German government bonds, however, outperformed as signs of slowing inflation (in the eurozone) and weaker-than-expected growth, allowed markets to increase their odds of imminent rate cuts. The European Central Bank (ECB) reinforced this market pricing by signalling that it was comfortable lowering interest rates at some point this year.